Casus belli is a Latin term for a formal legal reason to start a war. Did the US and NATO have a legal basis to go to war against Ukraine? And is the war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, or is it a proxy war between the United States and Russia? Does the war in Ukraine have little to do with Ukraine itself? Is the war a conflict between a Western front against Russia? And who stands to lose the most from the battle? Ukraine has not been a legitimate democracy since 2014, when a western-backed coup succeeded in replacing Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych with an anti-Russian government. The new government imprisoned and threatened opposition leaders and shut down opposition media. Many world leaders believe that the West cannot win this war. Even Prime Minister Boris Johnson of England has admitted that Ukraine is most likely to lose the war in front of the media. The objective of the West is not to win the war but to prolong it as long as possible.

The war is about damaging Russia as a world power and restoring the leadership of the US and the collective West on the world stage. The United States has enjoyed political dominance over world affairs since the second world war, but its influence has been subsiding. Thus the US intends to reassert itself as a global leader. The war aims to exhaust Russia militarily, economically, and politically. The longer the war lasts, the longer the sanctions against Russia. Western leaders believe Russia will suffer an economic and political loss worldwide. But because Europe is bearing most of the war’s costs, NATO countries would like the war to end and the sanctions lifted, but not so for the United States. The longer the war lasts, the more profits the military-industrial complex makes. Some of the aid the US has given Ukraine is a gift, but much of it is in the form of loans. Ukraine is even borrowing about 7 billion dollars a month to pay for its civil servants. So the longer the war lasts, the more western powers earn in interest.

Because we do not know the end game, because we do not see what the West or Russia intends to gain from the war, it isn’t easy to understand the process of the military campaign itself. If we do not understand the start and the middle, it is difficlut to see the end. The West cannot win this war militarily. As for the sanctions against Russia, the West stands more to lose than Russia. The longer the conflict lasts, the more the non-western world unifies against the West, the more the American dollar is threatened as the world’s standard reserve currency, and the more the West suffers economically from its sanctions. Germany, Austria, and other European countries face a significant economic downturn because of their punitive policies against Russia. The longer this conflict lasts, the more substantial the economic collapse. The majority of non-Western countries, such as China, India, Brazil, and the middle eastern countries, have not participated in the sanctions and have dawned closer to Russia. So far, the West has controlled the narrative, but how long can this last?

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Published by Kenneth E. Long

Author, college professor of economics, swimming and tennis enthusiast

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